Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-12-22 84779.009053 89461.189390 94139.931760 99162.734008 104398.890858 109693.166202 115447.418029
2024-12-29 77748.200816 84970.587653 92386.932028 100561.221497 109307.477509 118374.548907 128474.092030
2025-01-05 72493.344392 81460.008307 90867.045304 101450.334056 113003.307604 125210.003418 139060.246950
2025-01-12 67889.208318 78106.771422 89021.983102 101514.555138 115380.134576 130261.060212 147401.832026
2025-01-19 63959.081320 75136.774236 87269.643822 101365.652138 117237.879275 134503.144914 154648.125206
2025-01-26 61879.052416 74031.239615 87406.312174 103148.319845 121094.604338 140841.420385 164135.014964
2025-02-02 60079.852616 73091.710190 87595.935964 104869.259969 124782.591377 146921.020894 173292.123690
2025-02-09 57942.853122 71625.266696 87062.006744 105651.637054 127308.642254 151618.866046 180841.346601
2025-02-16 55498.211398 69671.942721 85850.369249 105542.619849 128715.546665 154967.076897 186795.884963
2025-02-23 53635.754182 68313.344897 85249.693842 106069.793856 130797.711726 159047.707505 193570.180730
2025-03-02 51685.658007 66761.097881 84340.613136 106159.109669 132304.297811 162415.080293 199488.580285
2025-03-09 50534.877284 66120.589719 84470.826169 107444.970171 135197.634025 167392.918303 207301.197304
2025-03-16 48522.443634 64378.873596 83242.800151 107082.066057 136129.176246 170088.349537 212485.868853
2025-03-23 47634.994598 63997.603553 83645.641293 108683.785152 139426.108330 175614.428501 221081.344994
2025-03-30 46495.379824 63252.092065 83560.600571 109655.315069 141938.080619 180197.036511 228564.389141
2025-04-06 44992.039349 61989.844102 82785.009439 109729.179307 143317.399072 183393.724438 234373.528399
2025-04-13 43467.764514 60647.105945 81860.008594 109571.856750 144375.124008 186176.039232 239670.855145
2025-04-20 42983.206471 60624.607747 82582.412493 111469.787108 147980.742384 192079.664777 248804.669301
2025-04-27 42501.030173 60581.374059 83260.724710 113301.427448 151504.011704 197896.488979 257865.713382
2025-05-04 41604.918823 59960.479686 83171.388126 114133.997354 153759.432511 202148.585414 265015.262004
2025-05-11 40343.073753 58813.870487 82367.376723 114017.995321 154790.424537 204867.040892 270264.590697
2025-05-18 39428.285111 58103.258356 82104.960992 114578.946747 156667.824496 208637.239433 276833.157241
2025-05-25 38363.021714 57156.568482 81503.967113 114673.981954 157929.891493 211626.837583 282429.497298